Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac remains bullish on the NZD/USD pair for the week ahead, targeting 0.7280 initially, then 0.7320, if US dollar weakness persists.
“There is some local event risk though: the RBNZ OCR Review (Thu) should repeat the on-hold message from May’s MPS. However, if there is a surprise, we would expect it to be a dovish one. The RBNZ could say there is as much chance of a rate cut as a rate hike during the years ahead, noting the economy is not as close to potential as thought.”
“There’s also consumer confidence (both the Westpac and ANZ versions) and migration data to keep an eye on, plus the GDT dairy auction. Futures are pricing a 1% decline in WMP prices.”
“Three months ahead: Multi-month, we stick with our bearish outlook, targeting 0.68 by year end, although we emphasize that is contingent on the US interest rate and US dollar uptrends eventually resuming.”