The main events to watch
In terms of economic data, the calendar in the day ahead is light. Data includes only second tier numbers on Q1 Australian home prices, Q1 US current account revisions and Canadian wholesale sales.
The central bank calendar, however, is flush with events worth closely watching. Here they are in chronological order.
1) 0100 GMT – PBOC’s Zhou
Zhou speaks at a forum sponsored by the main Chinese regulators. The theme this year in China has been a step backwards on liberalization of the currency on worries about a pickup in instability. The current benchmark rate of 4.35% has been in place since late 2015 but the focus is more about access to credit than rates. We’ll watch this one closely.
2) 0130 GMT – The June RBA meeting minutes
The RBA brushed off weak first quarter growth, just like many of their colleagues around the world. That has sparked a nice run for the Australian dollar. But maybe the message was misinterpreted? Probably not but it’s a risk as a busy day of central bank watching gets underway.
3) 0715 GMT – The Fed’s Fischer
This is a bizarre one. Fischer is the keynote speaker at a conference in Amsterdam but this event is purportedly closed to the press. Given all the headaches the Fed has had about leaks and transparency, this isn’t a good move. It will be interesting to see if he pairs it with an open event or comments to the media. We’ll check the TV schedules tomorrow.
4) 0730 GMT – BOE Governor Mark Carney
This is the big event of the day. Carney was supposed to give his Mansion House speech after last Thursday’s BOE decision but it was delayed because of the London fire. They’ve rescheduled a breakfast and a private event but the text is set to be released.
5) 0845 GMT – SNB’s Jordan
We heard from Jordan last week and it was the same song-and-dance about unlimited firepower to fight an expensive franc. We’d be shocked to hear anything different this time.
6) 1215 GMT – Fed’s Rosengren
The final central bank highlight of the day is a speech from Rosengren. The conference is about macroprudential policy so this one might be a dud. At the same time, Rosengren isn’t usually shy about sharing his thoughts. He’s been a hawk lately but a dove before. Is another turn coming?